SHFE tin prices fell back from highs of 278,500 yuan, likely to remain weak and consolidate [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on September 1, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) pulled back sharply from highs during the night session, closing at 272,500 yuan/mt, down 1.17% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The latest China Automobile Dealers Inventory Alert Index (VIA) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the August 2025 inventory alert index stood at 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points YoY but down 0.2 percentage points MoM. With the index remaining above the 50 mark, the auto circulation sector's prosperity declined. (2) Regarding the US Department of Commerce's removal of Intel Semiconductor (Dalian) Co., Ltd., Samsung China Semiconductor Co., Ltd., and SK Hynix Semiconductor (China) Co., Ltd. from the "Validated End-User" authorization list on August 29, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce stated on the 30th that the US move, driven by self-interest and weaponizing export controls, will significantly destabilize global semiconductor industry chains and supply chains. China opposes this action and urges the US to immediately correct its wrong practices to safeguard global supply chain security and stability. China will take necessary measures to firmly protect the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises. (3) Huo Fupeng noted that "AI+" not only represents the cutting edge of technological development but also addresses practical concerns of the public. Currently, AI is increasingly integrated into all aspects of production and life, empowering industries and benefiting households. The "AI+" initiative will shift consumer focus from "availability" to "quality." AI will also accelerate integration with frontier technologies like the metaverse, low-altitude flight, additive manufacturing, and brain-computer interfaces, driving product innovation and unleashing new consumption potential. In the future, as the "AI+" initiative advances, AI will make work smarter, learning more efficient, life better, and consumption more diverse, embedding "intelligence" into every household and ensuring technological benefits reach everyone.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters maintaining maintenance shutdowns in September (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector: Orders for tin PV bars in east China declined after the installation rush, with operating rates dropping at some producers; Electronics sector: End-user demand in south China entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and only essential orders; Other sectors: Steady demand in tinplate and chemical industries, without exceeding expectations.

Spot Market: The spot market followed the upward trend of futures, but trading was sluggish. Traders' willingness to sell at highs increased, while downstream buyers only maintained just-in-time procurement due to high price suppression. Traditional consumption sectors (home appliance, tinplate) were in the off-season, and the incremental demand from emerging sectors such as PV welding strip failed to fully offset the overall weakness, leading to a stalemate in spot trades.

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